Fear, Doubt, and the Math of Bad Ideas
Most ideas are bad at the start. That isn't a reason to quit - it's the baseline. Fear and doubt are useful signals that you're not delusional about early quality. The job is to move an idea from "bad" to "workable" fast enough to learn something.
Fear and doubt are productive
Skepticism reduces the distance between belief and reality. Treat it as a debugging tool, not a mood. Ask: What would make this fail? What would have to be true for this to work? If you can't answer, you're gambling, not building.
Why now matters more than brilliance
Bill Gross's Idealab analysis attributes ~42% of startup success to timing. You don't control luck, but you can choose waves. Before you commit, force a timing check: Why now? What changed in tech, regulation, or distribution that wasn't true two years ago? If you can't name the shift, you're early or late.
Expect the first version to be bad
Assume your V1 will be poor. That assumption protects motivation because it reframes the goal: ship to generate evidence, not to prove genius. You're not producing a masterpiece; you're creating feedback.
When in doubt, change something
Stall points are expensive. If you're unsure, change one variable: audience, channel, price, copy, mechanism, or scope. Make the change small enough to be reversible and large enough to generate a clear signal.
Don't judge people for trying
Most attempts will fail; that's the math. One working idea pays for a hundred misses. Respect anyone who puts an idea in the world and instruments it. The only real mistake is not testing because you fear looking foolish.
Throughput beats perfection
More attempts mean more surface area for luck and learning. Aim for high output of small bets with short feedback loops. You're manufacturing opportunities for one of them to hit.
A compact playbook
- Define the why now in one sentence; if you can't, pause.
- Ship a thin V1 in days, not weeks; instrument it.
- Set stop/go rules before you start (cost ceiling, timebox, minimum response).
- Change one thing at a time; measure the delta; keep what moves the metric.
- Archive failures with a note on what to try next; move on quickly.
The point isn't to believe harder - it's to test faster. Fear and doubt keep you honest. Timing keeps you relevant. Volume keeps you lucky.